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China Faces Historic Birth Rate 'Collapse' in 2025

Published January 20, 2026, 14:20
China Faces Historic Birth Rate 'Collapse' in 2025

China is experiencing an unprecedented demographic crisis, with births reaching a historic low in 2025 and the population declining for the fourth consecutive year. The birth rate fell to 5.63 per 1,000 residents, while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest level since 1968. Despite government efforts to reverse the trend through measures to encourage births, such as lifting the one-child policy and providing subsidies, the situation is worsening. The government initially lifted the one-child policy in 2016, allowing two children per couple. In 2021, the limit was increased to three children, and recently, a monthly allowance of approximately 430 euros was announced for parents with children under 3 years old. Additionally, some provinces offer their own subsidies and extended maternity leave. However, the government also took a controversial step by imposing a 13% tax on contraceptives, raising concerns about unwanted pregnancies and an increase in HIV cases. This move is seen as contradicting the government's goals of increasing birth rates. UN experts predict that China's population will continue to decline, with estimates of a loss of more than half of its current population by 2100. The government is concerned about the economic and social consequences, such as a shrinking workforce, weak consumer confidence, and an increasing elderly population requiring state care, while the pension fund is in a precarious position.