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ECB Risks Independence with Scenarios of Early Lagarde Departure

Published February 19, 2026, 09:16
ECB Risks Independence with Scenarios of Early Lagarde Departure

The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing increasing political pressure as scenarios emerge regarding a potential early departure of its President, Christine Lagarde, before the end of her term in 2027. This is driven by efforts from French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz to agree on her successor in advance, given the current political climate and the upcoming French elections where the far-right National Rally is gaining traction in polls. An early leadership change could limit the influence of a potential far-right president on the appointment of the next head of the ECB. However, analysts warn that such a move could undermine the independence of the ECB, as politicians appear to be "experimenting with the rules" to secure the appointment of preferred individuals. The ECB is responsible for setting interest rates for approximately 350 million citizens in 21 countries, supervising financial risks, and ensuring the stability of the Euro. Concerns about political interference in central banks have increased internationally, as evidenced by Donald Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve. In Europe, there is fear that an attempt at "preventive control" of appointments to the ECB could strengthen political voices that question the role of the central bank. There is a division among economists regarding whether an early departure of Lagarde would be beneficial or detrimental to the independence of the ECB. Some argue that it would create time to select a successor who would defend the institutional role of the bank, while others emphasize that appointments are inevitably political, but the ECB has stronger guarantees of independence.

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